Are Syria's Kurds Iran's New Allies?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 has triggered a fundamental reorganization of power dynamics in Syria, with Iran moving swiftly to salvage its regional influence through an emerging alliance with Kurdish forces. 

On December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad's government fell to Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ending Iran's 46-year alliance with Syria. Iran lost its primary conduit for supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, its forward military positions near Israel's borders, and its access to the Mediterranean. Perhaps most critically, Iran's carefully constructed "resistance axis" - stretching from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut - now faces a critical gap in its center.

Recent developments suggest Iran has identified YPG in northeastern Syria as their most viable path to maintaining influence in the Levant. Turkish media outlet Yeni Safak reports of negotiations for a significant drone transfer. According to the newspaper, the YPG requested 2,000 combat drones, with Iran agreeing to supply 1,500 units.

The Kurdish forces in northern Syria face several pressing strategic imperatives driving them toward Iranian cooperation. Their most immediate concern is the existential threat posed by Turkey's military capabilities and stated intentions to launch operations in northern Syria. This threat has become particularly acute since Assad's fall, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan explicitly threatening military action. The Kurds' current air defense capabilities remain limited, leaving them vulnerable to Turkish air operations and drone strikes. This defensive gap makes Iranian drone technology particularly attractive. Beyond immediate military concerns however, Kurdish leadership recognizes the inherent risks of relying solely on U.S. support. The potential for American withdrawal, similar to previous unexpected U.S. policy shifts in Syria, has pushed Kurdish commanders to seek alternative partnerships, as it could provide a vital deterrent against Turkish air operations.  However, the United States continues to be the main ally of the Kurdish factions in Syria. This creates a rather unusual situation, as they are America's closest allies in Syria, with U.S. forces stationed alongside them, while simultaneously maintaining covert connections with Iran.